Strategic Horizons

MAIN ELEMENTS

At present, we can only identify the premises of how our strategic environment will look in 2040. Consequently, this new edition of the geostrategic and geopolitical prospective report aims to explore the main trends likely to structure the international system towards the middle of the century and to outline any implications for France and its defence system.

Three main trends can be identified:
- the end of western domination,
- the acceleration of globalisation,
- ever-increasing instability and volatility.

> Read introduction (pdf)

I. INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Over the next thirty years, international relations are set to undergo a profound change in power distribution, marked by:

- The closure of the chapter of 'western domination', which began in the 16th century, and the end of the American unipolar order that began at the end of the Cold War;

- The emergence of new powers with global influence (China, India, Brazil) or extensive regional influence (South Africa, Indonesia, Turkey, etc.), and a shift of the geostrategic, geopolitical, and geoeconomic balance towards the East and, to a lesser extent, the South.

> Read Chapter  I "International relations" (pdf)

II. THREATS, CONFLICTUALITY AND MILITARY OPERATIONS

The world could witness an overall increase in the level of conflictuality in the next thirty years, most notably favoured by the geopolitical transition underway and the multitude of factors that could potentially generate a crisis in the long term (access to resources, demographic and economic imbalances, effects of climate change, longevity of the terrorist phenomenon, etc.).

This transition should be marked by a change in the field of armed conflict, which will fit neither into the peace/war logic that characterised conflicts in the 19th and 20th centuries nor into the continuation of the 'societal' crises that arose in the wake of the Cold War, but will incorporate different types of conflict struggle, or dispute of different intensities into a single set, particularly favouring asymmetric modes of action in the context of new conflictuality spaces.

> Read Chapter II "Threats, conflictuality and military operations" (pdf)

III. ECONOMICS

The second globalisation seems to have embarked on a process that is structural in particular because it has been based for many years on a very strong technological interconnection favouring the growing integration of the emerging nations into the 'world system'.

World economic growth, even if it slows down over the long term, will tend to reduce poverty, but there is also a risk that it could lead to the growth of inequalities between countries and within countries. This can generate tensions and carries a strong potential for social protest.

> Read Chapter III "Economics" (pdf)

IV. DEMOGRAPHICS & INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION

In the next thirty years, the world will undergo significant demographic restructuring: an increase in the population of over 25% (peaking between 2015 and 2025), ageing (medianage rising by eight years), and a worsening of the male/female digital imbalance, to the detriment of the female population.

The increase in regional and transcontinental migrations will fuel the disembedding dynamics (permeability of borders and of individual and collective identity), and should raise the question of migrant status with increasing urgency.

> Read Chapter IV "Demographics & International Migration" (pdf)

V. RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT

Climate change, which could potentially cause more frequent and more severe natural disasters, seems inevitable within the time frame under consideration, but the scope of its environmental, economic, health and strategic repercussions will depend on international mobilisation. These issues are highly politicised and controversial, most notably causing disagreement between developed and developing countries.

Under the combined effects of increasing demand and the deterioration of the environment in particular, access to natural resources such as fresh water, foodstuffs, and raw materials, especially energy and mineral sources, will be one of the greatest challenges facing humanity.

> Read Chapter V "Resources and Environment" (pdf)

VI. HEALTH

Under the pressure of ethnic and societal changes and the new health issues with an international dimension, health stands out as a priority for the coming decades. The awareness of the political, strategic, and security implications of health matters and the globalisation of health hazards should stimulate greater mobilisation.

The evolution of certain parameters affecting health (generalised ageing of the population, increasing urbanisation, risk of new pandemics, technological breakthroughs, etc.) has a strong impact on the governance aspect of the health system (regional or international) and on its organisational aspect, but the issues are also scientific, societal, ethical, economic, and industrial.

> Read Chapter VI "Health" (pdf)

VII. SOCIETAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES

Of the many technological, societal and cultural1 changes imaginable over the next thirty years, the acceleration of technological and scientific innovation, the mutation of ideologies, political reconfigurations, identity-based and religious recompositions will have a decisive impact on international and strategic organisation, relations, and balances. They could also constitute factors creating tension or sources of new vulnerability.

> Read Chapter VII "Societal and technological changes" (pdf)

REGIONAL APPROACHES

1. The United States: (still) the leading world power in 2040
2. Europe – a medium-sized power?
3. Africa on the move ?
4. The Middle East: long-term tensions
5. Russia, Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia: power and fragmentation of territories
6. Asia, a power opportunity
7. Latin America: a voice on the world stage

> Read Chapter "Regional approaches" (pdf)

+ Appendices (pdf) : Glossary, List of Abbreviations & Acronyms, List of Contributing Experts